Canada is in the early stages of bending the curve.
Zoomed in, we can see Canada still following Germany, albeit slower than before.
Within Canada, it’s only Ontario and Quebec that have the crisis. In terms of daily deaths, they’re both going steady and preventing an increase.
A better way to see the pattern is in a 7-day rolling chart:
I like to look at the percentage change of daily deaths as well. Canada is doing a little worse than Germany was at this stage, but we’re slowly catching up:
In terms of prediction, we’re still following the model. Wish we were doing better than the model, but glad we’re not doing worse.
Keep in mind that the following table is on a log scale and shows daily deaths in different countries. Canada is relatively flat (technically, rising slowly), other countries (except the US) are in a clear decline.
A better way to see if we’re bending the curve is by looking at deaths per million per day. Canada seems to be in the early days of a decline.
The US was declining, but some states opening up prematurely has likely started it to go back up again.
For the next two charts, we have to first look at the fact that tests in each country are going up:
So the fact that we’re testing more in Canada, it’s great news that we’re finding fewer active cases. Look at the decline in Canada. Look at the United States and how it’s going back up after initially declining. I don’t like that.
Finally, the following chart is of new cases each country finds every day. Canada seems to be in the early days of decline there as well.
There we have it.
Within Canada, Ontario tested > 16,000 people yesterday, up from ~15,000 the day before and ~12,000 the day before that. It’s understandable then that we found slightly more cases, but we’re still showing a decline in new cases when you look at a rolling average.
Slow and steady.
