May 3: Going Steady, No Bad News!

Zee
3 min readMay 3, 2020

Sunday numbers are generally low. I put red lines in the chart below to indicate Sundays. Notice the drop compared to a day before.

The numbers today are similar to Sunday numbers

Because our Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday numbers were very high, I was concerned that today’s numbers may be higher than other Sundays. However, the good news is that it did not happen.

3-day rolling average of percentage increase in the number of deaths

This shows up as a dip in our 3-day rolling average, but given the rise previously, that average is pretty much flat at 5%.

Due to some bad news over the last few days, people forget how well Canada has done overall. Here’s a reminder:

Canada and Germany are not like the rest of them

We’re also holding steady compared to Germany.

Germany has 2.2x more people than Canada, so technically their numbers should be 2.2x. However, at this stage, Germany had 1.5x more deaths than Canada has now. It used to be 1.8x, but lately, our numbers haven’t dropped as much as they were expected to at this stage, so the difference between Germany and Canada is smaller.

For now, this number is holding steady at 1.5x (down from 1.7x last Sunday). However, I expect it to drop to 1.3x by next Sunday, unfortunately.

1.5x means at this stage, Germany had 1.5x as many COVID-19 deaths as Canada

In laymen term, it means that we were doing as well as Germany did in the first 3.5 weeks, after which Germany improved faster than Canada did.

Right now, compared to Germany, we’re doing a little worse (but we’re doing better than other comparison countries by a *long* shot). Germany is held as one of the examples of a country that performed really well, so that’s not too bad. If we get through this and Germany ends up having only 1.3 to 1.5x as many deaths as Canada, then that won’t be a bad situation.

Canada compared to other nations

The number of deaths per million in Canada is not too far from Germany. One area where we haven’t done well is in testing. Compared to other countries, both USA and Canada are struggling.

The modeling is difficult at this point. If our pattern holds then we will likely be around 4,870 deaths by next Sunday.

However, if we get a handle on the longterm care homes situation then one can expect it to be lower. For now, I am predicting 4,870 by next Sunday.

I’ll update the above chart daily to see how we’re doing against prediction.

As far as the rest of Canada is concerned, they’ve gone beyond the peak and they aren’t seeing a lot of deaths. For now, this crisis is limited to Ontario and Quebec.

Let’s hope the warmer weather helps curb the spread along with the armed forces helping out with longterm care and retirement homes.

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Zee

A rare combination of a tech *and* political leader. Holds an elected office in Milton, Ontario and runs CampaignRaven.com. This blog focuses on tech.