May 16: End of Week Update

3 min readMay 17, 2020


Germany, France, Italy, and Spain are pretty much flat. The daily deaths number is finally slowing down in the US. The US part was expected considering the country will cross 100,000 COVID-19 deaths this month (the real number might be twice as high).

The number of daily deaths is slowing down in Canada as well.

The drop (3-day rolling average here) shows that the infection is not spreading as quickly.

Another way of looking at the data is to see how quickly the number of total deaths is going up:

5-day daily average to smooth out the fluctuations

The rolling average peaked on May 8th at 65. The number is down to 38 today and will likely drop to 35 tomorrow.

It will remain a tragedy until we take the number down to zero, but the drop also shows the number of lives we’re saving.

The drop has mostly happened because of Ontario and other provinces as Quebec is basically flat. If you look at the charts on the left, you can see the drop for Ontario as Quebec stays flat.

New cases in Ontario peaked on April 24th

New cases in Ontario peaked on April 24th. The number of daily deaths peaked exactly 2 weeks later on May 8th.

There has been a slight increase in new cases, but I’d attribute that to increased testing:

I prefer looking at the percentage of positive cases out of all the tests done:

Another useful piece of data is the load on the hospital system:

The number of patients in the ICU peaked on April 26th (two days after the number of cases peaked). Considering this drop, I am optimistic that the number of daily deaths will keep dropping over the coming days.

Now that Ontario is slowly opening, it’s important to see what happens with the community spread. Hopefully, we’ve learned to practice physical distancing and wear masks enough to contain the new spread.




A rare combination of a tech *and* political leader. Holds an elected office in Milton, Ontario and runs This blog focuses on tech.