May 12: Same old, same old
The US started to do well earlier this week, but today took a turn for worse
I suspect things there might get worse in the coming days.
Canada has done really well when it comes to active cases (except Montreal). However, Canada hasn’t done as well in controlling deaths because of a number of outbreaks in longterm care homes. While I will continue to look at the number of deaths, it does draw a worse picture than the reality.
Each country has been able to bring the increase in deaths down to a small number, but then it stays there seeing the same number of deaths every day.
That line for Canada (at the moment) is higher than it was for other countries. Hopefully, as we resolve longterm care home outbreaks, that number will come down.
I’d like to see the red line (Canada) meet or go below the orange line (Germany).
The above graph is very frustrating for me. Ontario reports around 50 deaths a day (a little below or a little above). Our 25-day average is exactly 50 deaths per day.
Quebec reports ~100 deaths a day (sometimes above, sometimes below). Its 25-day average is 96 deaths per day.
The rest of Canada has mostly solved the problem. It collectively reported 3 deaths.
Another area Ontario has done poorly is testing.
Ontario showed a consistent improvement between May 5 and May 9th, and then reported fewer tests every day. Today’s report had fewer than 12,000 tests. As a result, there’s now a backlog of 10,811 cases now.
Due to less testing than before, the below graph is less useful:
I made the green line a 6-day trailing average because the fluctuating number of daily tests cases a lot of fluctuations in the number of new cases found. Looking at the 6-day trailing average smooths out these fluctuations. It is certainly clear that we peaked on April 24th and have been declining since then.
Another way to look at the data is, how many of the daily tests come out positive:
The green line is the 6-day trailing average, showing clearly that we’re finding fewer and fewer positive cases out of all the tests we run.
The biggest fear that sent us into a lockdown was the fear of hospitals getting overwhelmed with a surge. The following graph shows the tremendous success we had:
After peaking around April 26th, the number of patients in ICU and patients requiring a ventilator both have been declining consistently.
All in all, Ontario is on the right path but it is struggling to lower the number of deaths and increase its testing.
Quebec is lowering active cases as well (albeit very slowly). Like Ontario, it, too, is struggling to lower the number of deaths.
The number of hospitalizations has peaked in Quebec, similar to Ontario. The number of patients in ICU also dropped from 205 4 days ago to 185 today. However, the situation is dire in Montreal where hospitals are full and understaffed.
Conclusion: I expect Canadian provinces, other than Quebec and Ontario, to start easing restrictions now. Within Quebec, it seems to be treating Montreal separately from the rest of Quebec, which is slowly opening up as well.
In Ontario, my main concern is the inconsistent rate of testing. This has been one major disappointment in an otherwise good performance by the province and one reason why our restrictions will ease slower than they could if we had better testing.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings.