May 10: Lowest New Active Cases in Ontario Since Early April. Happy Mothers Day!

I had predicted 4,870 deaths by May 10th. Canada reported exactly 4,870 deaths. That’s some prediction!

Good news first: Ontario sees the lowest growth in new cases since early April, with only 294 new cases found out of 17,618 tests completed. That’s only a 1.7% positive rate.

There is other good news for Ontario as well below in the Ontario section.

Canada

I predicted 4,870 deaths by May 10th. Canada reported 4,870 deaths

Canada is still struggling to start lowering daily deaths, mostly because of Quebec. Quebec reported more deaths today than all of Canada (including Quebec) did yesterday.

We haven’t turned the corner on daily deaths yet

However, since we’re keeping the number relatively constant, the daily percentage increase has slowed down significantly.

Quebec had a bad day:

Ontario typically reports low deaths on Sundays. This Sunday is no exception

But if we look at the 5-day rolling average, we can see that each province is relatively flat and moving within the same bounds.

The daily deaths aren’t coming down, yet.

Ontario

Let’s dive deep into Ontario

We are clearly on the downtrend.

Even though we are testing more, we are finding fewer active cases.

Now more good news:

Everything is trending down (good)

There are fewer people hospitalized, fewer people in the ICU, and fewer patients on a ventilator. Everything is (slowly) coming down.

Ontario is performing more daily tests

We are also testing more. See the blue trend line. We went from only 6,000 tests on April 15th to over 17,000 tests yesterday. To truly open the province, however, we need to perform a lot more daily tests.

I am not going to do the same analysis for Quebec today because they had a bad day. Ontario is now in a clear decline and is showing improvements across every metric.

Happy Mothers Day.