COVID-19 Update: Apr 3
I should explain what the above chart reflects. If you already understand it, you can skip the explanation.
Starting from when each country had 80 deaths, the number of deaths accumulated rather quickly. The chart shows the total number of deaths on each day after the country crossed 80 deaths.
For instance, Canada had 80 deaths on March 30th. That’s day-0 for Canada. Day-1 is March 31st. Day-2 is April 1st. Day-3 is April 3, when Canada hit 173 deaths.
Each country has a different day-0, but since COVID-19 has the same R0 no matter which country (presumably), the curves can be explained and do demonstrate the country’s success in managing the spread.
Ideally, we’d compare active rates, but since there isn’t mass testing everywhere, I am using the deaths.
Germany: Take a look at how long each country took to get to 3,000 deaths (after crossing 80 deaths).
The purpose of the chart is to track how Canada and Germany are doing. Canada seems to be following Germany but keep in mind that Germany is at 1239 deaths after 13 days. Here’s how long each country took to accumulate 3,000 deaths after it hit 1,200 deaths:
The next few days are important for Germany. You cannot see it in this chart, but the increase in deaths is slower in Germany than it is in other countries.
That brings us to Canada.
Canada seems to be following Germany. After 4 days, Germany had 206 deaths. After 4 days, Canada has 208.
Before going to other countries to understand why USA is in trouble, let’s consider the deaths per million table.
Italy and Spain have only now started flattening, after almost 250 deaths per million. The USA is only at 22 deaths, so it has a long way to go.
Notice how the number of deaths accumulates surprisingly similarly regardless of the country’s overall population. That’s because the rate at which the virus spreads is similar.
Spain and the USA are on the same path whereas Italy and France are following the same trend.
To really understand how the number of deaths is changing daily in these 4 nations, we can look at the percentage change in the total number of deaths each day:
The number of deaths fluctuates but overall they follow a trend. This chart shows how new deaths in Spain is trending down quickly at this stage. Italy is also dropping, but it has longer to go than in Spain.
Here things get scary for America. It’s trending down very slowly, which is expected because it has “only” 22 deaths per million.
So even though America has 7,391 deaths so far, you can expect the deaths to keep piling up before the USA starts to flatten.
Unless, of course, all US States wisen up. Right now not all American States have stay-at-home orders. That’s like having a designated peeing area in a swimming pool.
It will continue to contaminate everything.