April 4th Update. Not too bad a day

Trendlines for Canada & Germany overlap perfectly. Click to zoom in.

Explanation, feel free to skip

Starting from when each country had 80 deaths, the number of deaths accumulated rather quickly. The chart shows the total number of deaths on each day after the country crossed 80 deaths.

For instance, Canada had 80 deaths on March 30th. That’s day-0 for Canada. Day-1 is March 31st, day-2 is April 1st, and so on.

Each country has a different day-0, but since COVID-19 has the same R0 no matter which country (presumably), the curves can be explained and do demonstrate the country’s success in managing the spread.

Ideally, we’d compare active rates, but since there isn’t mass testing everywhere, I am using the deaths.

And now the analysis

Germany: Take a look at how long each country took to get to 3,000 deaths (after crossing 80 deaths).

Number of days to get to 3,000 deaths after hitting 80 deaths

The purpose of the chart is to track how Canada and Germany are doing. Canada seems to be following Germany but keep in mind that Germany is at 1,444 deaths after 14 days.

Here’s how long each country took to accumulate 3,000 deaths after it hit 1,200 deaths:

Things can get bad rather quickly

You can tell from the Chart that Germany is doing better, but based on the table above, things can get bad rather quickly. That said, Germany has a better trend line and that’s the line Canada is following at the moment.

That brings us to Canada.

Canada seems to be following Germany. After 5 days, Germany had 267 deaths. After 5 days, Canada has 231.

The accumulated number of deaths in Germany and Canada, so far

It would be premature to conclude Canada’s trajectory is slower than Germany’s. In fact, at the moment both countries have identical trend lines, so it seems like Canada is following Germany very closely. However, that may change in the coming days (hopefully for the better).

For countries farther along, let’s look at deaths per million as well.

Not too bad, Canada.

Not all Canadian provinces are testing enough (yet), but overall Canada has done nearly twice as many tests (adjusted for the population) than the USA. The UK is actually doing very poorly in this regard, as is France.

Italy and Spain have only now started flattening, after almost 250 deaths per million. The USA is only at 26 deaths, so it has a long way to go.

America and Spain have been following the same trend, as are France and Italy

Notice how the number of deaths accumulates surprisingly similarly regardless of the country’s overall population. That’s because the rate at which the virus spreads is similar.

The same chart as above, zoomed in

Things change a little when you zoom in. It clearly shows that while Spain is maintaining the same trajectory, America is actually getting worse (so is France).

Trends different countries are following is more apparent when we look at the change in growth in total deaths:

The number of deaths fluctuates but overall they follow a trend. This chart shows how new deaths in Spain is trending down quickly at this stage. Italy is also dropping, but it has longer to go than in Spain.

The “path to zero” for the United States is far enough that it’s impossible to predict when it will truly flatten its curve.

So even though America has 8,452 deaths so far, you can expect the deaths to keep piling up before the USA starts to flatten. The country might even hit 10,000 deaths by tomorrow!

Concluding Ramarks

So in conclusion, if Canada stays with the measures we had in place a week ago, then we’ll follow Germany. However, if we improve (and we seem to be putting additional controls in) then we might do better than Germany.

The United States is still not taking it as seriously. Some US States are doing very well while others are pretending it’s no big deal. With interstate travel, you really cannot fight the pandemic without a proper national strategy.

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A rare combination of a tech *and* political leader. Holds an elected office in Milton, Ontario and runs CampaignRaven.com. This blog focuses on tech.

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Zee

Zee

A rare combination of a tech *and* political leader. Holds an elected office in Milton, Ontario and runs CampaignRaven.com. This blog focuses on tech.

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