April 2nd update: A bad, bad day
You win some, you lose some. Today was definitely in the latter category.
Let’s take a look at Canada first. Keep in mind that I am tracking the total number of deaths since that’s a more accurate number (active cases are hard to compare since they are measured differently).
The graph represents total deaths, starting from when each country crossed 80 deaths. Typically it has taken ~2 weeks for countries to reach 3,000 deaths after crossing that milestone.
The total population actually doesn’t matter in this case. The spread of the virus has to do with the infected population coming in contact with others and passing on the infection. A larger population-base just means that the virus has longer to go.
Canada’s trajectory was slower than all comparison countries, until today. A large number of deaths took us above Austria (and even where Germany was at this stage). That might just be a blip or it might be the start of a new pattern, we will find out in the next couple of days.
Keep in mind that Germany is our target as it is one Western democracy that seems to be doing better than others, even though it exceeded 1,000 deaths today. Keep in mind that the UK was close to Germany and then shot up to hit 3,000 deaths in 15.5 days (just over the two-week mark), so Germany isn’t all clear either.
Canada’s problem is that we are right next to a giant that is doing really poorly.
Everything returns to the mean. The USA has been tracking Spain. It had some good days, but yesterday it went back up to meet Spain.
France, which diverted from Italy, just had a terrible day and went back to Italy’s numbers.
The above chart is on a logarithmic scale, so the straight-line actually shows exponential growth. Here’s a zoomed-in version on a non-log axis:
The USA is in trouble.
Spain and Italy did not start flattening out until they crossed 200 deaths per million. America is only at 18 deaths per million, which means it has a long way to go.
And that’s bad news for Canada too because when America sneezes, Canada gets a cold.