Apr 6, 2020
Apr 5: Canada + Germany vs Other Democracies
Explanation, feel free to skip
Starting from when each country had 80 deaths, the number of deaths accumulated rather quickly. The chart shows the total number of deaths on each day after the country crossed 80 deaths.
For instance, Canada had 80 deaths on March 30th. That’s day-0 for Canada. Day-1 is March 31st, day-2 is April 1st, and so on.
Each country has a different day-0, but since COVID-19 has the same R0 no matter which country (presumably), the curves can be explained and do demonstrate the country’s success in managing the spread.
Ideally, we’d compare active rates, but since there isn’t mass testing everywhere, I am using the deaths.
And now the analysis
Germany: I predicted it 6 days ago and now it’s obvious, Germany is flattening out. Here’s how other countries were on day-13:
The UK was low, but it shot up after the politicians there thought they could handle the crises differently.
That brings us to Canada.
Canada’s trend-line is still Germany, but if we maintain the pattern tomorrow as well then we’ll have a new trend. Canada is actually doing really well.
It is important for Canadians to stay on track because the UK is a warning sign of what can happen if a country takes its eye off the ball.
The UK is a green line. It is one country that had a shot at staying really flat, but since then the number of deaths really shot up.
As the above chart shows, the percentage increase in deaths in the UK is almost flat. That’s a serious problem. The USA is only marginally better.
Ultimately, it seems like Canadians have taken the threat seriously. All levels of the government in Canada is completely aligned. That now reflects in our long-term trends.
The United States (as well the UK) are a completely different story. The US lacks a cohesive national strategy and while some States are taking it seriously (eg: Washington), others still seem to be in denial.
It might be a long road ahead for the United States.
