Apr 23: Canada on Track but Quebec is Struggling

Total number of deaths in different Canadian provinces (the data is from the afternoon, so a bit off)

Quebec has been hit the hardest in Canada for two reasons: a) proximity to the US States that are impacted more, and b) they had their March break a week sooner.

Ontario was impacted because of it as well because although the March break was after Quebec, it was still sooner than other provinces.

Among Canadian provinces, BC has done an amazing job, despite a large number of flights from Asia. Alberta has also done very well with testing. The rest of the provinces were able to react due to the larger provinces being hit, and that spared them.

Canada saw 167 deaths today, out of which 109 were in Quebec (+10%) and 54 in Ontario (+8.2%). All other provinces combined had 4 deaths.

It was only one day, so we’re still close enough to the prediction.

This also shows up in the 3-day rolling average of % increase in total deaths.

We expected to have some bad days, it’s completely fine. Generally, we are still doing well.

The total number of deaths in Canada is not seeing a spike that happened in other countries

The same trend can also be seen when we see raw numbers:

For comparisons, this is what happened to other countries:

Removed the United States because the number of deaths in America overshadowed everyone else

In conclusion, Canada is still on track, but Quebec is a real risk.

Despite the struggle, Quebec has managed the crisis well. Here’s what their hospitalization look like:

Number of hospitalizations

  • Number of regular hospitalizations: 1 204
  • Number in intensive care: 207
  • Total number of hospitalizations1: 1 411

Quebec actually has 1,000 intensive-care beds and 3,000 ventilators. That means Quebec can handle a bigger surge, which hopefully will not come. If things got bad then Quebec was actually more prepared to handle it than Ontario.

In terms of age distribution, Quebec is within the range as well.

The challenge in Quebec right now is controlling the outbreaks in long-term care homes, that’s where they’re seeing most of their deaths.

That’s the challenge in Ontario as well, half of all deaths in Ontario have also been in LTC Homes.

One area where Canada has improved its standing over the last few days is the testing rate.

Other countries that are ahead of Canada are the countries that are ahead of Canada in their infection cycle. In this area, the US and the UK are doing poorly, but doing poorly is something they share very often sadly.

Final thought: if Quebec (and to some extent, Ontario) can protect LTC Homes then we’d have ridden this wave really well. That is the main risk we face.

(See previous updates: April 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14)

A rare combination of a tech *and* political leader. Holds an elected office in Milton, Ontario and runs CampaignRaven.com. This blog focuses on tech.