Apr 21: Good day x2
The increase in deaths normally goes up on Tuesdays in Canada, probably because deaths that happened over the weekend are properly attributed to COVID-19 by now.
Keeping that in mind, one would expect the reported deaths on Tuesday to be higher than they were on Sunday and Monday.
The previous Tuesday saw a 67% increase in deaths compared to Monday. Today saw a 48% increase.
Confusing, I know. Let me explain it visually.
If you look at the red line, last Tuesday it reversed its trend downwards and went back up.
Today it continues going down.
And that shows that we have truly turned the corner! Keep in mind that 102 of 144 deaths today were in Quebec. 38 were in Ontario. The rest of Canada had only 4 and needs us two provinces to do better (esp. Quebec).
We will still have bad days. An outbreak in a few Long-Term Care homes can show up as a spike. But those waves won’t change the overall trend downwards.
The above chart shows that Canada successfully resisted an upward swing of other countries (similar to Germany’s achievement in Europe). Last Thursday’s spike had me worried, but it seems like it was a one-off.
You can see the upward swing I am talking about better if we zoom out and add other countries:
The crazy blue line is the United States which, sadly, is acting like a failed state at the national level with confusing statements and incohesive strategy.
Here’s another closer look at the same data:
Perhaps actual numbers of where the different countries were on their 21st day might be helpful:
It shows that the gap between Canada and other countries (except Germany) is growing consistently.
The number of deaths on each day in Germany has been 1.8–2.0 times the deaths in Canada (it’s 1.7x today, but that’s because on Germany’s 21st day they reported very few deaths, but caught up two days later).
Considering Germany’s ~2 times more populated than Canada, it makes sense that at our stage they had ~2 times as many total deaths. In fact, I expect this to continue as both countries march towards zero new deaths.
For that reason, it helps to see where Germany is today (keep in mind that Germany is exactly 10 days ahead of Canada in its cycle).
Highlighted cells are estimates if we follow the same path. We have a shot at finishing this month below 3,000 deaths. Much lower if Ontario and Quebec can protect senior / nursing / LTC homes well.
More good news from around the world.
All in all, second-day in a row of good news. After the terrible weekend Canada had, I appreciate some good news.
Let’s hope it continues.