Apr 20: Only Good News Today
Lots of good news today. Lots.
Germany’s chart shows a clear flattening even in the death rate. Canada is following the same pattern and is slowing down as well.
Sunday and Mondays are generally slow for us (possibly because the weekend data is entered late). The numbers catch up on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, we did well even by our weekend standards.
The three-day rolling average smooths out fluctuations. You can see how Canada is roughly following Germany. That’s good news.
At this stage other countries had spikes, I’d expect the same for Canada. With daily deaths coming down, an outbreak in a nursing home or two can cause waves of deaths. However, the trend is clear, Canada *is* slowing down.
That’s the first good news.
Let’s see how Ontario is doing.
New community spreads have peaked in Ontario. We still have ways to go, but we’re now coming down from the peak. Ontario is doing better than the best-case projection, which is a result of the population taking physical distancing very seriously. That’s not good news, that’s great news!
Quebec is dragging the rest of Canada down (simply because their March break was a week sooner). However, it isn’t doing too bad and it’s improving rapidly.
The same type of data with the total number of deaths doesn’t show the same improvement yet, but that’s mostly because deaths is a lagging indicator. I believe the trend in the coming days will show flattening, notwithstanding a few waves here and there.
With all that good news, here’s the risk:
The median age of someone in Ontario who lost his/her life to COVID-19 is 85.
That means the Long-term Care homes are the highest risk area. Outbreaks there can be devastating.
The real question is, when do we start easing!
The thing with easing is that it will give rise to more infections, there’s no way around it. So we can start easing up when we’re confident that the hospitals can handle the surge.
So what do we have? This:
We are not too far from the “medium-case” scenario and way better than the “best-case scenario”. Ontario is coming close to the best-case.
LTC Homes pose a real risk but the Ontario government has recently taken several actions to contain the situation there.
I honestly never thought I’d see a situation where the population would mostly voluntarily makes huge sacrifices to tackle a massive social issue. I am glad to say, I am really impressed by how seriously we all took this and how we ‘flattened’ the curve.
We must now stay the course a little bit longer to make sure it’s truly contained and doesn’t rise because people stopped distancing.
Canada is headed towards this amazing scenario: the scenario where we have to deal with conspiracy theorists telling us it was all a scam because things never got really bad (they leave out the part where things did not get worse because we all rocked and followed the rules).
I’ll take that over unnecessary deaths any day.
Told ya it was a good day.